The French real estate market is going through a stabilization phase that masks very contrasting realities depending on the segments. Real estate prices in France no longer follow a uniform trajectory: the energy performance diagnosis (DPE), geography, and type of property (new or old) create parallel markets with diverging dynamics.
Valuation gap between energy-inefficient homes and renovated properties
We are observing a phenomenon of segmentation accelerated by the energy performance diagnosis. Properties classified as F or G remain on the market longer and undergo significantly tougher negotiations than two years ago. The Higher Council of Notaries confirms this trend in the 4th quarter of 2025: in Île-de-France as well as in other regions, buyers now incorporate the cost of energy renovation into their purchase offers.
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In contrast, well-rated homes (A, B, C) sell more quickly, sometimes at prices maintained despite the overall stabilization context. This differential is not shrinking. For investors, this means that the discount on an energy-inefficient home does not automatically constitute a good deal: the renovation budget and compliance timelines can absorb the advantage of a low acquisition price.
We recommend systematically analyzing the total cost (acquisition plus renovation) rather than just the displayed price per square meter. Some local markets allow for this granularity, such as Piraino prices on Info Immobilier, which provide a detailed reading of valuations at the municipal level.
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New housing market in France: construction shortage and latent price tension
Most public analyses focus on the old market. The new market tells a completely different story. Building permits are timidly rising again (the notary reports +3.3% in February 2026 compared to January), but this figure does not compensate for the deficit accumulated over several years.
The volume of construction starts remains at a historically low level. In areas with population growth, this construction shortage fuels latent price tension that the overall stabilization temporarily masks. The attractive municipalities along the Atlantic coast, the Rhône corridor, and certain regional metropolitan areas are the most affected.
For a buyer, this changes the perspective. Waiting for a drop in new prices in these areas would be a risky bet: the scarcity of supply acts as a price floor, even when interest rates exert downward pressure on demand.
New vs. old: two decoupled cycles
The old market has begun to recover transaction volumes. The new market, however, remains constrained by construction costs (materials, RE2020 standards, land). These two markets no longer react to the same signals. A relaxation of credit conditions revives the old market in a few months. The new market, on the other hand, depends on zoning decisions and permits, whose cycle spans several years.
Geographical recomposition of real estate demand post-telework
The idea of a massive urban exodus has fizzled out. Long-term data from IGEDD shows a more nuanced phenomenon: demand is redistributing towards medium-sized cities and well-connected suburban municipalities, without the large metropolitan areas emptying out.
Demand profiles have changed. Households are no longer only looking for space. They are balancing between:
- The quality of transport links (TGV station, highway, public transport) that conditions the maintenance of a metropolitan job remotely
- The level of local amenities (healthcare, education, commerce) that determines the viability of a sustainable settlement
- The price per square meter relative to the property’s DPE, as the monthly energy cost weighs as much as the mortgage payment in household budgets
This recomposition generates local micro-markets with very different dynamics from one municipality to another. Two cities located twenty kilometers apart can show opposing price trends depending on their accessibility and housing stock.
Real estate rates and notarial indices: reading the right signals in 2026
The stabilization of financing conditions is the foundation for the recovery of transactions in the old market. Rates have eased from the peaks reached at the end of 2023, but the decline is neither linear nor guaranteed. French political uncertainties weigh on the OAT spread, which limits banks’ maneuvering room.
On the index side, notaries publish quarterly data that remains the reference for measuring the real evolution of real estate prices. We recommend cross-referencing these indices with transaction volumes: a stabilization of prices accompanied by an increase in volumes signals a market on the path to normalization. A stabilization of prices with stagnant volumes signals a blockage, not an equilibrium.
Real estate climate: indicators to watch in the second half
Three elements will condition the price trajectory by the end of 2026:
- The evolution of the ECB’s key rate, which directly influences the cost of mortgage credit for households
- The timeline for implementing rental bans related to the DPE, which could lead to an influx of poorly rated old properties on the sales market
- The level of building permits in the coming quarters, the only reliable leading indicator to anticipate future supply of new housing
The French real estate market in 2026 cannot be summarized as either an upward or downward trend. The relevant perspective is that of segmentation: by DPE, by location, by type of property. A buyer or investor who still thinks in national averages misses the widening valuation gaps between these segments.